Multiple Comparisons › Error Rate Concepts: FWER vs FDR

Michael BrenndoerferJanuary 9, 20265 min read
Machine Learning from ScratchAll chapters
Part 2 of 9Hypothesis Testing
Chapter 21Multiple Comparisons › Error Rate Concepts: FWER vs FDR
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Before diving into correction methods, we need to clearly distinguish two different ways to conceptualize error rates in multiple testing. Each has its place depending on your research goals.

Family-Wise Error Rate (FWER)

The family-wise error rate is the probability of making at least one Type I error among all tests:

FWER=P(V≥1)\text{FWER} = P(V \geq 1)

where VV is the number of false positives (true null hypotheses incorrectly rejected).

When to control FWER:

  • Confirmatory research where conclusions must be definitive
  • Clinical trials where each below-threshold p-value can lead to treatment decisions
  • Any situation where a single false positive has serious consequences
  • Small numbers of pre-specified comparisons

Controlling FWER at level α\alpha guarantees that the probability of any false positive is at most α\alpha. This is the most conservative form of error control.

False Discovery Rate (FDR)

The false discovery rate is the expected proportion of false positives among rejected hypotheses:

FDR=E[VR]=E[Vmax⁡(R,1)]\text{FDR} = E\left[\frac{V}{R}\right] = E\left[\frac{V}{\max(R, 1)}\right]

where VV is the number of false positives and RR is the total number of rejections.

When to control FDR:

  • Exploratory research where you're screening many hypotheses
  • Genomics and proteomics, including other -omics studies
  • Neuroimaging with thousands of voxels
  • A/B testing with many metrics
  • Situations where some false positives are acceptable if most discoveries are real

Controlling FDR at level qq means that among your "significant" results, the expected proportion of false discoveries is at most qq. This allows more discoveries while still controlling the error rate.

Visualizing the Difference

Out[5]:
Visualization
Log-scale scatter plot of the 100 smallest p-values with the constant Bonferroni threshold and true null and alternative hypotheses distinguished.
FWER control (Bonferroni) rejects only the strongest signals to ensure no false positives. With 1000 tests (950 true nulls, 50 true alternatives), Bonferroni uses a very conservative threshold.
Log-scale scatter plot of the 100 smallest p-values with the increasing Benjamini-Hochberg threshold and true null and alternative hypotheses distinguished.
FDR control (Benjamini-Hochberg) accepts some false positives to detect more true effects. The BH threshold increases with rank, allowing more rejections among smaller p-values.

The figure illustrates the key tradeoff:

  • Bonferroni (FWER control): Very conservative threshold rejects only the strongest signals, minimizing false positives but missing many true effects
  • Benjamini-Hochberg (FDR control): Less stringent threshold detects more true effects at the cost of accepting some false positives