Prophet › Visualizing Prophet Components

Michael BrenndoerferAugust 5, 20253 min read
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Chapter 59Prophet › Visualizing Prophet Components
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Understanding how Prophet decomposes time series is important for interpreting forecasts and identifying potential issues. Let's visualize how Prophet breaks down a complex time series into its constituent parts.

Out[6]:
Visualization
22:30:36 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain [1] start processing
22:30:36 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain [1] done processing
Four-panel plot showing Prophet decomposition of synthetic time series into trend, seasonality, and holiday components.
Prophet's additive decomposition of a synthetic time series with trend, seasonality, and holidays. The top panel compares the original time series with fitted values. The subsequent panels show the individual trend, yearly and weekly seasonal patterns, and holiday effects. This decomposition makes it easy to understand what drives the forecasts and identify potential modeling issues.